Really American | Saturday Morning, March 7, 2026
One week in. Over 1,200 dead inside Iran. Gas up 14 percent in seven days. An Iranian president offering a partial apology while vowing his country will never unconditionally surrender. And a classified U.S. intelligence report, completed just one week before the bombs fell, warning that this war was headed for disaster.
That report wasn’t supposed to get out. It did. And what it says should be on every front page in America.
We’re publishing this morning because the mainstream press will show you the smoke over Tehran and the pump prices. They won’t connect the dots. We will.
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The Leaked Spy Report That Explains Everything
Here is the story the White House does not want leading the Saturday news cycle.
According to the Daily Mail, a classified assessment completed by the National Intelligence Council, the body that bridges all 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, was finalized just one week before the bombs fell on Tehran. Three people familiar with its findings told the Washington Post that the report concluded Iran would likely respond to Khamenei’s death by following internal protocols designed to preserve the regime. The assessment found it was “unlikely” that Iran’s opposition would seize control of the country.
Let that land. The U.S. government’s own intelligence community, days before the operation began, concluded that the war’s central premise, that bombing Iran would collapse the regime and liberate its people, was probably wrong.
Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told the Washington Post that capitulating to Trump’s demands would go against everything the Iranian government stands for. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar at the Brookings Institution, agreed: there is no opposition force inside Iran capable of confronting the regime’s remaining institutional power, even as that regime struggles to project force outward.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said it plainly on social media: “The fate of dear Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by Epstein’s gang.”
That’s Iran’s legislature using MAGA’s own language against the president. On day eight of a war his intelligence community said wouldn’t produce the outcome he promised.
Iran’s President Apologized. But It Wasn’t a Surrender.
On Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian delivered a televised address that Trump immediately declared was an apology and a surrender. It was neither, at least not fully.
Pezeshkian did apologize to Gulf neighbor states for Iranian missile and drone strikes that hit the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and other countries over the past week, saying Iran should not attack neighboring countries unless attacked first. Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran had been “beaten to HELL,” declared it “THE LOSER OF THE MIDDLE EAST,” and vowed Iran would “be hit very hard” on Saturday, including targeting “areas and groups of people” not previously considered.
But Pezeshkian’s message was also explicitly defiant. He said Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender was “a dream that our enemies will take to the grave.” Hours after his address, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed they had targeted U.S. bases in the UAE and Kuwait. Qatar confirmed it had intercepted an Iranian missile and issued a heightened security alert.
According to the New York Times, the mixed messages from both sides left any potential off-ramp for ending the war “far from clear.”
This is not a war that is ending. This is a war where both sides are holding press conferences about how they’re winning while the bombs keep falling.
Your Gas Bill Is Trump’s War. And He’s Fine With That.
According to the New York Times, gas prices reached a national average of $3.41 per gallon on Saturday, up 14 percent in a single week and the highest prices since 2024. West Texas crude settled at $90.90 a barrel on Friday, up more than 35 percent for the week, with most of that gain coming in a single day.
The reason is straightforward: the tankers that normally carry oil out of the Persian Gulf have stopped moving. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed, handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. That supply is now cut off. The prices at your pump this weekend are a direct result.
According to the Times, economist Wayne Winegarden of the Pacific Research Institute warned that even a short-term spike will have lasting consequences. “You still significantly squeeze people’s budgets, and you significantly impacted the economy,” he said. “That will have long-term implications.”
Trump, asked about the price surge in an interview with Reuters, was characteristically unbothered. “They’ll drop very rapidly when this is over,” he said, “and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit.”
The Trump administration has said it has no plans to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California drivers are paying $5.08 a gallon this morning. When Biden’s foreign policy decisions led to gas price increases, Republicans held hearings and made campaign ads. Today, the president who promised to bring prices down is telling you the war is more important than what it costs you to fill your tank.
Week One: What Actually Happened
According to the New York Times, U.S. forces have struck over 3,000 targets since the operation began last Saturday. The Israeli military said Saturday it launched a broad overnight wave of strikes on Tehran and central Iran, hitting Mehrabad airport and targeting planes affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Israel has now flown roughly 1,600 individual missions and dropped approximately 4,000 bombs on Iran since the start of the operation.
At least 1,230 people have been killed inside Iran, according to reporting cited by the Daily Mail. More than 200 have been killed in Lebanon. Eleven in Israel. Six American service members are dead.
The death toll at the girls’ school in Minab, confirmed by the New York Times from verified footage and images, stands at 175 children. The U.S. government has still not officially acknowledged the school strike.
Dubai International Airport, after suspending all flights, announced it had partially resumed operations Saturday. Jordan has closed its airspace. Israel seized areas of southern Lebanon. Iran triggered air raid sirens over Jerusalem and Gulf cities including Dubai, Manama, and near Riyadh, where Saudi Arabia intercepted a ballistic missile fired at an air base housing U.S. military personnel.
Trump’s stated goals for the war have shifted with every news cycle: nuclear weapons, then missiles, then conventional weapons that might one day shield a future nuclear program, then regime change, then a settlement where the U.S. has a say in who leads Iran. According to the Daily Mail, Trump told NBC News: “We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job.”
The president of the United States is now picking Iran’s next government. Congress was never asked. The American people were never told.
The Bottom Line This Saturday Morning
A classified intelligence report completed before this war started concluded it was unlikely to achieve its central goal. The Iranian government is still standing, defiant, and firing missiles. Gas is $3.41 and climbing. Over 1,200 people are dead. The school in Minab still has not been officially acknowledged. And the man running this war told a reporter this week that rising gas prices are just the cost of something more important.
He didn’t say what the exit looks like. He never has.
The mainstream press will give you the military scorecard and the pump prices. What they won’t give you is the throughline: a war built on intelligence the government’s own analysts doubted, with goals that change daily, and with costs landing directly on your wallet and your world.
That’s what we’re here for.
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— The Really American Team
